Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 1.528029 1.999841 2.630149 3.553714 4.907266e+00 6.876351e+00 10.071842
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 1.102239 1.643506 2.500096 4.031110 6.883220e+00 1.240626e+01 25.261789
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 0.824496 1.367881 2.360537 4.484762 9.492765e+00 2.272162e+01 71.057160
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 0.645954 1.178235 2.287305 5.116391 1.367313e+01 4.632356e+01 273.423239
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 0.511779 1.013687 2.190245 5.736998 1.961813e+01 1.014163e+02 1646.179762
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 0.385458 0.811179 1.901916 5.656577 2.400040e+01 1.904153e+02 13701.895127
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 0.290049 0.639984 1.602381 5.301588 2.732373e+01 3.386048e+02 365095.149069
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 0.236667 0.550200 1.484050 5.569067 3.677765e+01 8.969592e+02 NaN
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.205566 0.506005 1.484339 6.465413 5.894799e+01 4.541603e+03 NaN
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.183648 0.478615 1.530948 7.843144 1.060329e+02 7.370022e+04 NaN
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.158345 0.430587 1.471706 8.591456 1.658774e+02 9.377564e+06 NaN
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.131912 0.368655 1.316099 8.398260 2.117644e+02 NaN NaN
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.107843 0.308284 1.141511 7.865248 2.542618e+02 NaN NaN
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.095072 0.282185 1.111461 8.759910 4.592311e+02 NaN NaN
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.083832 0.257254 1.071542 9.588377 8.509525e+02 NaN NaN
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.075266 0.239046 1.056127 10.865979 1.908462e+03 NaN NaN
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 0.067589 0.221336 1.031637 12.115982 4.672114e+03 NaN NaN
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 0.058356 0.193949 0.928000 11.652858 7.176617e+03 NaN NaN
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 0.049953 0.167395 0.812831 10.604197 8.769865e+03 NaN NaN
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 0.044862 0.153340 0.771581 11.061630 2.113558e+04 NaN NaN
2025-04-27 00:00:00+00:00 0.041879 0.147398 0.782513 12.997788 1.493761e+05 NaN NaN
2025-05-04 00:00:00+00:00 0.039741 0.144485 0.814903 16.117861 1.215233e+07 NaN NaN
2025-05-11 00:00:00+00:00 0.036652 0.136042 0.798004 17.766859 NaN NaN NaN